Supportive policy and liquidity conditions should continue to underpin markets and investment conditions, but the path forward is likely to be less linear, more volatile, and more headline-driven than it appeared at the start of the year.

Geopolitical risk has upended market outlooks, raising fresh, global questions about growth, inflation, and the policy path ahead. The risk of a protracted period of higher oil prices stemming from a prolonged disruption around the Strait of Hormuz broadens the range of possible macro and market outcomes for the year. The challenge is not simply slower growth or higher inflation in isolation, but the possibility that both pressures begin to build at once, making the policy response less straightforward. 

   

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